The data points to why that warning matters. The Marsh index notes the current downtrend is being driven by growing insurer competition, a favourable loss environment and reinsurance pricing, plus increased capacity – conditions that can change. And while many commercial lines are easing, some risks remain structurally difficult. Marsh reported global casualty rates increased 4% in Q4 2025, driven by a 9% increase in the US tied to claim severity and large jury awards. Even for Australian clients, that kind of global claims inflation can bleed into insurer risk appetite, reinsurance costs and portfolio decisions.